Over the 10-year period spanning the second quarter of 2015 (Q2 2015) to the second quarter of 2025 (Q2 2025), exports have trended in an overall upward direction, and have outperformed imports in several instances. In Q2 2025, exports increased on a quarterly basis, and remained higher than imports. It is anticipated that the impact of the United States’ tariffs, implemented on 7 August 2025, will likely show in the third quarter of the year.

South Africa’s quarterly exports over the 10-year period spanning the first quarter of 2015 (Q1 2015) to the first quarter of 2025 (Q1 2025) have trended in an overall upwardly direction, and have outperformed imports in several instances. In Q1 2025, exports fell on a quarterly basis, but remain higher than imports in the current quarter, and higher than exports in the same quarter of 2024.

In Q4 2024, South Africa’s exports grew 1% quarter-on-quarter, from R515 billion in Q3 2024 to R521 billion in Q4 2024. Quarterly export growth was driven by increased exports to Area Not Elsewhere Specified (NES), Belgium, Germany and Japan, but was stifled by reduced exports to Mozambique, China and the Netherlands, among others. Imports fell by R23 billion quarter-on-quarter, amounting to R456 billion in Q4 2024. As a result, South Africa has maintained a positive trade balance for a seventh consecutive quarter – R65 billion, in Q4 2024.

From Q3 2014 to Q3 2024 South Africa's imports and exports both trended upwards, with growth in exports outpacing growth in imports. In Q3 2024, exports are 22% higher than they were in Q3 2014, while imports are 3% higher. In addition, the quarterly average for exports (R459 billion in constant 2024 rand) was higher than it was for imports, at R428 billion. South Africa went from subsequent quarters with a negative trade balance, at the start of the timeframe, to subsequent quarters with a positive trade balance, at the end of the timeframe.  

In Q2 2024, exports increased 12% quarter-on-quarter, rising from R466 billion to R523 billion, mostly driven by exports to Areas Not Elsewhere Specified (Area NES), Germany and India. However, on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, exports declined marginally by 1.3% from R530 billion in Q2 2023 (constant 2024 prices) to R523 billion in the same quarter of 2024. The quarterly export growth in Q2 2024 outpaced that of imports, which saw imports increase by 3% quarter-on-quarter from R454 billion to R468 billion. As a result, the trade balance in Q4 2024 remained positive for the fifth consecutive quarter. The trade balance in Q2 2024 saw a significant 358% increase from the previous quarter, rising from R12 billion in Q1 2024 to R55 billion. On a y-o-y basis, the trade balance in Q2 2024 surged by 450%.

South Africa’s exports continued to decline in the first quarter of 2024, after falling for two consecutive quarters. In Q1 2024, South African exports fell by 7.8% year-on-year, from R510 billion in Q1 2023 to R470 billion (in constant 2024 prices). On a quarter-to-quarter basis, exports declined by 10%, down from R525 billion in Q4 2023. This decline was mainly driven by the reduced demand from key markets such as Asia, North America, and the Middle East.

In the fourth quarter of 2023, South Africa registered a surplus of R22.9 billion, a third consecutive surplus since the second quarter of 2023. This was despite the drop of 0.5% in total exports, year-on-year, from R522 billion in Q4 2022 to R520 billion (in constant rand terms) in Q4 2023 The total imports to the country also saw a decline of 3.1% year-on-year from R513 billion in Q4 2022 to R497 billion (in constant rand terms) in Q4 2023.

South Africa’s merchandise exports experienced a 9.2% year-on-year decline from R570 billion in Q3 2022 to R517 billion (constant rand terms) in Q3 2023. Imports also saw a downturn in the third quarter of 2023, falling by 5.5% year-on-year, amounting to R478 billion. Despite the 9.2% decline in exports, South Africa managed to maintain a second consecutive trade surplus from the previous quarter, due to a less significant decline in imports, recording a trade balance of R29.8 billion.

In the second quarter of 2023, South Africa’s merchandise exports saw a notable year-on-year decline, falling by 10.2% to R490 billion (constant rand terms) from R546 billion in Q2 2022, with a marginal drop of 0.1% from the previous quarter (Q1 2023). The fall in exports continues to be driven by a drop  in mining exports, which saw a 20% decline due to a fall in the price of coal. Growth in imports moderated, slowing down to a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, amounting to R481 billion in Q2 2023, and a 2.3% decrease from the previous quarter. The moderation of imports resulted in a reversal of the trade deficit experienced in the first quarter of 2023, with South Africa’s trade balancing amounting to R9.6 billion.

South Africa’s merchandise exports declined by 0.8% year-on-year, amounting to R484 billion (constant rand terms) in the first quarter of 2023, while imports saw an increase of 15.1%. This resulted in a trade deficit (R1.2 billion) which was last experienced in the first quarter of 2019. The fall in exports in Q1 2023 was driven by the drop in commodity prices, particularly coal, which led to a decline in export revenues as coal is one of South Africa’s top export commodities. Since Q3 2021, South Africa’s imports have grown at a faster pace compared to exports, amounting to R485 billion in Q1 2023. The growth in imports has been primarily driven by increased demand for inputs to increase electricity generating capacity, with a rise in imports of products such as electrical transformers and electric batteries.