TIPS - Past Projects

Leveraging South Africa's G20 engagement to advance pharmaceutical manufacturing: A strategic policy opportunity

2025-11-24T16:17:51+02:00

Upheaval in the global external environment, including the recent COVID-19 pandemic, infectious disease outbreaks such as the Marburg virus, and the most recent development aid funding cuts, has created a sense of urgency among African nations to relook at health systems resilience and self-sufficiency in the supply of healthcare products. This Working Paper focuses on how South Africa’s strategic engagement in the Group of 20 (G20) could enhance its ability to mobilise international partnerships, influence global pharmaceutical policy, and attract investment for pharmaceutical manufacturing to facilitate export-led sector growth.

Opportunities to develop the lithium-ion battery value chain in South Africa

2021-03-01T13:53:57+02:00

The world of mobility is rapidly changing. The market for electric vehicle (EVs), in all their forms, is growing exponentially. Combined with technological disruptions in the energy space, the rise of EVs puts battery technologies at the core of sustainable development. Multiple technologies and chemistries, with their respective advantages and shortcomings, are competing in a market currently dominated by lithium-ion batteries (LIBs).

Both South Africa’s government and industry have indicated their intention to position the local value chain as a key player in the mobility of the future. This is critical to ensure a just transition to e-mobility which would notably preserve, if not increase, job creation. Indeed, South Africa hosts a vibrant automotive manufacturing value chain. Like in the rest of the world, the domestic industry, however, produces internal combustion engine vehicles and components. This research report explores the opportunities for South Africa to have a role in the LIB value chain.

Background

This project comprises a main report and policy brief were prepared by TIPS on behalf of the Low Carbon Transport - South Africa (LCT-SA) Project. The project was initiated and funded by the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO). The TIPS team are: Gaylor Montmasson-Clair, Lesego Moshikaro and Lerato Monaisa. It was overseen by a Steering Committee comprised of Ashanti Mogosetsi (UNIDO), Marie Blanche Ting (UNIDO), Gerhard Fourie (Department of Trade, Industry and Competition – the dtic), Hiten Parmar (uYilo), Jenitha Badul (Department of Environment, Forestry and Fisheries – DEFF), Shahkira Parker (DEFF), Bopang Khutsoane (Department of Transport – DoT), Marleen Goudkamp (DoT), Minnesh Bipath (South African National Energy Development Institute – SANEDI), and Tebogo Snyer (SANEDI). Phillip Ninela (the dtic), Umeesha Naidoo (the dtic), and Mandisa Nkosi (UNIDO) acted as an internal technical task team.

See Policy Brief: Opportunities to develop the lithium-ion battery value chain in South Africa.

TIPS Tracker: The economy and the pandemic 21 September - 4 October

2020-10-05T11:20:37+02:00

This TIPS tracker highlights important trends in the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa, and how they affect the economy. It analyses publically available data, research and media reports to identify current developments and reflect on the prognosis for the contagion, the economy, and policy responses.

Since the pandemic and the economy have stabilised, this will be the last Tracker. TIPS will continue to publish periodic in-depth analyses of developments and debates around recovery and reconstruction. Our quarterly Real Economy Bulletin will also include a section on the impact of the pandemic on the economy.

KEY FINDINGS FOR THE WEEK

On the pandemic

The rate of transmission of COVID-19 has continued on a secular upward trend, but the increase has been both slow and unpredictable. The long holiday weekend around Heritage Day on 24 September appears to have fuelled an uptick a week later.
The rate of transmission depends largely on the extent to which public health authorities are able to convince people to wear masks and avoid social gatherings, whether in homes or businesses.
Overall, excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic seem likely to be the largest single source of natural deaths in South Africa this year. For comparison, COVID-19 is now estimated as the 12th largest cause of death globally, but ranks first in New York, Brazil and Peru, second in the UK, and third in Sweden.

On the economy

In a pattern seen worldwide, the recovery has taken a “swoosh” shape, with a relatively sharp rebound in April and May fading into a more gradual improvement over the past four months. Breakdowns in Eskom plants remain a binding constraint, with a downturn in electricity sales in September.
As usual with economic and natural disasters, damage from the pandemic is falling disproportionately on the poorest communities and households. Employment data for the second quarter show that job losses were highest for lower-skilled, lower-income and informal workers. These groups will also be hard hit by the termination of the COVID-19 special grant and the supplement to other social grants, currently due to end on 15 October.

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TIPS Tracker: The economy and the pandemic 7 September - 20 September

2020-09-21T14:53:45+02:00

Over the next few months, the Tracker will explore the challenges facing different industries, looking in this issue at autos and music.

KEY FINDINGS FOR THE WEEK

On the pandemic

Since 18 August, when the country moved to Level 2 of the lockdown, the number of cases has plateaued at over 1 500 new cases daily. For comparison, reported infections peaked at over 12 000 a day in mid-July. The current level of reported daily diagnoses was last seen in early June. The rate of transmission remains far lower than three months ago, but has climbed by 75% over the past month, leading to a modest increase in new cases in the past week.
With new cases falling until last week, the government further relaxed restrictions from 21 September, mostly permitting much larger gatherings and shortening the curfew. Unless stronger behavioural changes bring transmission again under control, however, cases will start accelerating in the coming weeks.
The results of reopening without adequate protection can be seen Europe and the US. In some areas, new cases now exceed April levels, bringing renewed restrictions on businesses, especially bars and personal services, and on the size of gatherings. The evidence indicates that higher transmission resulted largely from reopened nightlife and universities combined with increased tourism. In the US, initial studies suggest that around a fifth of cases are traceable to bars alone.

On the economy

The GDP figures for the second quarter of 2020, released on 8 September, revealed the extraordinary impact of the pandemic. Evaluation of the (limited) data on monthly trends shows that the decline took place exclusively during the full lockdown in April. It was followed by a strong although incomplete rebound in May. Since then recovery has slowed, despite the elimination of almost all legal restrictions with the move to Level 2.
The pandemic has ushered in a new world for state-owned companies, which have found they can no longer easily obtain subsidies from the state when they run substantial losses, especially when they have no core socio-economic mandate. Among others, SAA, Denel and the SABC are in a financial quandary with no obvious resolution, and Eskom has had to accept that recovery will require faster erosion of its monopoly on the national grid.
Efforts to develop recovery plans intensified in the past month as the reopening of the economy has returned attention to more fundamental constraints on growth. The discourse has generally centred on supporting existing formal businesses, however, without complementary programmes to promote more inclusive growth. The auto and music industries point to the tough choices required in light of the economic havoc caused by the pandemic both nationally and globally.

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TIPS Tracker: The economy and the pandemic 24 August - 6 September

2020-09-07T14:42:36+02:00

Over the next few months, the Tracker will explore the challenges facing different industries, starting in this issue with steel and tourism.

KEY FINDINGS FOR THE WEEK

On the pandemic

The number of new diagnoses of COVID-19, which started to decline rapidly in mid-July, levelled out at an average of just over 2 000 a day in the week to 6 September. In contrast to the move to Levels 4
and 3, however, three weeks after Level 2 started on 18 August reported infections had not risen sharply.
A review of international data shows that countries with higher reported death rates from COVID-19 can also expect a sharper economic decline. Countries with lower death rates, in contrast, generally also had better economic results. The lowest reported death rates emerged in two kinds of countries: in states that controlled the spread of the pandemic through strong public health measures; and in low-income economies characterised by limited international air links, largely rural populations, and low testing rates

On the economy

The move to Level 2 brought an initial increase in economic activity. Overall, the available indicators suggest that economic activity has returned to around 10% below pre-pandemic levels. The Western Cape, however, continues to lag behind.
The recovery has run up against loadshedding by Eskom. Yet government expects to finalise its emergency acquisition of 2 000 MW of new power from private suppliers only in mid-2022.
Case studies of steel and tourism underscore that economic recovery will require more than broad government measures to control the pandemic, stimulate demand and fix the electricity supply. In many industries, new business models are required to survive, and that imposes touch choices around write-offs of assets and employment. The particularly stark challenges facing tourism help explain the relatively slow recovery of the Western Cape economy.

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TIPS Tracker: The economy and the pandemic 10 August - 23 August

2020-08-24T13:55:17+02:00

KEY FINDINGS FOR THE WEEK

On the pandemic

The number of reported new cases fell to an average of 3 350 a day in the week to 23 August, from a peak of over 12 000 in mid-July. In response, government relaxed restrictions to Level 2 from Tuesday, 18 August.
The government was clearly concerned that removing legal restrictions could lead the public and businesses to weaken their efforts to limit transmission, especially physical distancing and masking. Despite the progress from mid-July, the number of reported new cases in the week to 23 August was still three times as high as when Level 3 started on 31 May. If people engage in more risky behaviour, cases will start to surge again in two to three weeks.
The move to Level 2 underscored that, as long as the pandemic is not fully under control, some industries cannot be both profitable and safe unless they transform their business models. This applies above all to public in-doors entertainment, restaurants and bars; large malls; most personal services such as gyms and hair salons; public transport; and tourism, especially from overseas.

On the economy

The available evidence indicates that the economic recovery remains slow.
Big companies have begun to announce their financial results for the period to June, and most are not pretty. There are, however, big differences depending on the industry and the state of the business before the lockdown. State-owned companies that have relied on government bailouts over the past decade now face the real risk of liquidation.
Following the public outcry over corruption around the pandemic response, the government has introduced measures to capacitate state institutions to initiate investigations and prosecutions. In light of the open pushback from some politicians, the success of the new initiatives will depend on support from civil society, and especially the media and advocacy groups, as well as on the ability of the legal system to move far more quickly and decisively.

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TIPS Tracker: The economy and the pandemic 27 July - 9 August 2020

2020-08-11T10:58:14+02:00

KEY FINDINGS FOR THE WEEK

On the pandemic

South Africa appears to have succeeded in cutting the transmission of COVID-19 sharply over the past month, although reported new cases per 100 000 are still far higher than in early June. Known active cases declined 45% from their peak in mid-July through 9 August.
The reasons for the decline are not obvious. The critical factor has likely been the willingness of millions to wear masks and socially distance as far as possible, reinforced by government action to discourage high-risk activities in mid-July.
Despite the improvement, six out of nine provinces still reported more than 10 new cases per 100 000 residents as of 8 August. According to recommendations by the Harvard Global Health Institute and the Safra Centre for Ethics, that means they should maintain strict limits on social and recreational gatherings. An OECD study found that if South Africa permits another peak in infections this year, it will shave 2% off the GDP forecast for 2020 and 2021.

On the economy

The available data suggest that economic growth is still recovering slowly.
The pandemic has had a particularly harsh impact on women in South Africa, as internationally. They are more likely to work in jobs that directly serve the public, where the risks of both infection and job losses are highest. They are also less likely to have paid work at all, and so benefit less from relief efforts tied to employment and income. And they face increased domestic violence during the lockdown. The increase in social grants goes only a small way to offsetting these disadvantages.
The social and political stresses resulting from the long-running pandemic have begun to emerge in rising protests as well as the corrosive discourse on corruption in procurement. Nonetheless, proposals for recovery from economists and business organisations continue to focus on long-run demands rather than ways to cushion the immediate economic impacts of the pandemic. Opportunities include setting up systems to limit workplace outbreaks; developing a just transition for industries that cannot open safely in the short run (notably entertainment venues, tourism and liquor stores) while identifying new opportunities; expanding public employment and other programmes to relieve the devastation wrought on poor communities; and finding more progressive ways to fund state programmes.

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Managing economic risks linked to climate change: Securing market access for South African wines.

2020-07-29T12:01:13+02:00

With greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions coming to the fore of nations’ climate policy concerns, the wine industry faces a new challenge. Viniculture (grape cultivation for winemaking) is directly susceptible to climate change impacts due to grapevines being highly sensitive to the surrounding environment, such as changes in weather patterns. In addition, the industry is increasingly targeted by climate change response measures, aimed at reducing GHG emissions. Such measures are poised to significantly alter traditional methods of production. Trade-related climate change response measures, such as shifts in import-export patterns, border carbon adjustments or non-tariff barriers (such as standards), are also increasingly more prevalent.

South Africa is the world’s sixth largest exporter of wine in volume and has not been exempt from these trade impacts. This paper unpacks the green protectionism dynamics which have increasingly impacted the domestic wine value chain and stand to be a growing risk moving forward. The paper also explores the factors that make it particularly difficult and yet necessary for South African producers to adapt to this new genus of regulation.

This report was produced by TIPS for the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition

TIPS Tracker: The economy and the pandemic 13 July - 26 July 2020

2020-07-27T16:31:28+02:00

KEY FINDINGS FOR THE WEEK

On the pandemic

The number of diagnosed new cases levelled out in Gauteng and Eastern Cape in the past 10 days and continued to decline gradually in the Western Cape. As a result, the number of active cases reported declined in the past week for the first time, despite escalating growth in KwaZulu-Natal and the Free State.
The reasons for the decline in reported active cases remains unclear, and it may not be sustained. In any case, unless the number of cases starts to fall more rapidly, South Africa will be living with a very high rate of cases per person by international standards for some time. That in turn makes it harder to control transmission generally. Moreover, it means individuals face higher risks than a month ago, especially in Gauteng, the Western Cape, the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal.
The Medical Research Council has found that the total deaths from natural causes has climbed by over 12 000 above the expected number of deaths at this time of year, even after taking into account reported deaths attributed to COVID-19. This pattern reflects a common experience internationally. It typically arises because more people have died at home during the pandemic either without a COVID-19 diagnosis or because they avoided getting treatment for some other ailment due to fear of contagion.

On the economy

As in other countries, the sharp increases in reported new cases and lower employment and incomes appear to be weighing down the economic recovery. The available indicators point to a slight fall in household consumption over the past two weeks. In the longer run, the South African Reserve Bank now expects a 7,2% downturn for the year.
From March to May, consumer prices in South Africa dropped by 1%, and inflation from May 2019 to May 2020 fell to 2%, lower than any time since 2005. But food prices rose 4,5% from March to May, offset mostly by the sharp fall in global oil prices. As a result, the lower-income group, which spends more on food and less on petrol, experienced higher inflation than the richest 10% of households.
International experience continues to demonstrate that, as in South Africa, economic recovery can be heavily set back by ending restrictions on risky activities before the virus is under control. In this context, the often-cited trade-off between lives and livelihoods turns out to be misleading. The real challenge is to cushion low-income households as far as possible from the economic slowdown.

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TIPS Tracker: The economy and the pandemic 29 June - 12 July 2020

2020-07-13T14:48:52+02:00

KEY FINDINGS FOR THE WEEK

On the pandemic

Daily growth in reported new cases has exceeded 7% a day in Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the North West, and was at 5% in the Eastern Cape. Total reported cases more than doubled over the past two weeks to reach 264 000, while the seven-day rolling average of new cases climbed from 5 000 on 26 June to 11 000 on 12 July. For the week to 11 July, South Africa reported more new cases per million people than the United States or Brazil, which have been famously unable to control the spread of COVID-19.
Newly diagnosed cases have essentially plateaued in the Western Cape since 20 June at around 1 200 a day. As a result, the Western Cape’s share of new cases reported in South Africa fell from half a month ago to a sixth in the past week.
The divergent regional trends raised the question of how to understand the factors driving infection rates. The much-heralded “peak” is, after all, only visible when the number of new cases starts to fall. In contrast to seasonal flu or diseases like measles, for which preventative measures exist, the only way to bring down the number of cases is behavioural change on a mass scale. Yet the government reimposed limited restrictions on especially risky activities only on 12 July, six weeks after the growth in new cases began to escalate.

On the economy

Looser restrictions on business contributed to the rapid spread of COVID-19 but, after a spurt in economic activity, the available indicators suggest that the recovery remains very slow. The challenges appear primarily in suppressed demand as escalating risks of infection in the metros, South Africa’s economic drivers, keep high-income consumers largely at home; most households have lost income; and export demand remains largely flat, with most commodity prices still lower than before the pandemic.
In the past week, both the ANC and Business for South Africa (B4SA) published proposals on how to boost the recovery. They share some important themes, notably around the need to mobilise both private and public financing for an infrastructure drive, the critical importance of fixing Eskom, and the need to avoid disruption to commercial agriculture. The main substantive disagreements emerge about how best to manage Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (BBBEE) and create a more dynamic and competitive economy.
Neither paper appears to have any new ideas on immediate measures to cushion the effects of the anticipated depression-level economic decline over the coming year. Income losses are likely to be severe for low-income households, small business and local governments.

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